It’s still super early days, but everyone seems to be asking who is running and who could win. I asked participants at the 2019 Women’s March on January 19th who they would support in 2020. Although many respondents outwardly groaned when they saw the question on the survey, the results are very interesting. Moreover, it’s pretty interesting to compare to the recent fivethirtyeight poll and the more recent one from FireHouse Stretegies, given their similarity and differences. Here are the results:
While my colleagues over at the Crowd Counting Consortium keep tabulating how many people participated in the 3rd annual Women’s March, once thing is certain: the Women’s March continues to mobilize people to Resist in the Streets.
My new piece over in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage, highlights the ways that participants in this year’s Women’s March were marching after having participated in the midterm elections in many ways.
Here’s a table of all the ways that participants in the 2019 Women’s March worked with Individual Candidate’s Campaigns during the 2018 election cycle:
At this point, American Resistance has gone to Press, which means it will be coming out in the not-too-distant future. I’ll continue to post here and provide updates. Note that the chapter drafts that are available are early drafts of what is to come.
The full revised draft of American Resistance will be going into Columbia University Press this month (so you can imagine what I’ll be doing for the next few weeks). That said, I wanted to share one more overview of findings from the follow-up survey with participants in the Resistance based on my post-2018 election survey.
While the action shifted from the Streets to the Districts, perspectives by members of the Resistance about what are the top 3 issues facing America were pretty stable. Here’s the comparison:
The stability of concern for the environment is remarkable. It provides support for policies like a (as well as more specific regulations to mitigate Climate Change). Concern for the political system in the US is also relatively stable. This category includes issues of Voter Suppression and Gerrymandering, as well as challenges to our electoral system.
Concern for Health Care shot up during this 6 month period. This shift is likely the result of attempts to repeal the #ACA as well as the discussion of candidates’ positions on healthcare during the election. Concern for #CivilRights fell from the #2 category in May 2018 to #4 (earning 5% less mentions). This shift may be due, in part, to the fact that Racial Justice was mentioned much more in November 2018.
In contrast to mentions by incoming Congressional leaders who say they will be focused on an infrastructure bill quickly (after resolving the government shutdown), infrastructure did not make the list of the top 15 issues in either May or November 2018. It was only mentioned TWO TIMES total right after the election, representing 0.4% of all mentions
Participants in the Resistance reported working with numerous groups leading up to the midterm elections and the number had grown substantially in the 6 months before the election (from May to November 2018). The most mentioned groups were the Democratic Party, the Women’s March, MoveOn, Indivisible and the ACLU.
There were also very significant differences in what exactly people did with these groups. Here is a table showing the breakdown for how people reported working with each group (as a percentage of the people who reported working for each group).
There is still more to say about exactly what participants were doing with the Democratic Party and how they participated in individual campaigns (53% did), but not today.
As I analyze the data collected through my post-election follow-up survey with participants in the Resistance in the Streets, I thought I’d share some early preliminary findings.
The most common protests attended by participants in the follow-up survey were the 2017 WomensMarch (68%) and the MarchForOurLives (51%).
As expected, civic engagement levels were high for these folks in the past year: 72% had contacted an elected official, 79% had signed a petition, 80% had participated in a boycott or buycott, 47% attended a town hall meeting, and 36% had participated in some form of direct action.
In addition, these activists reported working with numerous groups in the lead up to the midterm elections: 61% reported working with the Democratic Party in some way, 28% with ACLU/People Power, 30% with Indivisible, 36% with MoveOn, 18% with Swing Left, and 44% with the Women’s March. Also, about half (53%) reported having actively worked in support of 1 or more political candidate during the election.
My next post will discuss what, exactly, participants in the Resistance did with these groups.
The final data for American Resistance–the post-election follow-up with participants from the Resistance in the streets–closes at the end of this week. These data will complete the story of how people participated in the Resistance during the past two years–both in the Streets and in the Districts.
The response rate for the survey is currently 24%. Although this rate is consistent with online follow-up surveys, I am hoping that the final response rate will be closer to 30% (the follow-up survey I fielded 6 months before the midterms yielded a 29% response rate). In the past few weeks, I have noticed that numerous groups have been reaching out to movement sympathizers with information and requests for donations. As a result, email outreach may be less effective than it has been in the past.
While I wait for those data to come in, I have been revising the manuscript for submission to Columbia University Press in January. The revisions are focusing in updating the arguments for each chapter, taking into consideration information from the inauguration through the midterm elections. These revised chapters are quite different from the drafts that were posted on this site. I’ll speak more about these differences in the future.
Now that the Blue Wave has washed over the House of Representatives (and continues to grow in some states), will the Resistance join the Graveyard of democratic politics? History suggests that progressive political movements lose their potency after Democratic electoral wins. Just look at the post-9/11 anti-war movement and the Obama campaign in 2008 for evidence. Although some called the campaign to elect Barack Obama a movement to elect the first Black president, the campaign’s infrastructure (which became Organizing for America) was subsumed into the Democratic party quickly after the inauguration. The grassroots army of activists celebrated as the future of grassroots organizing was swiftly disarmed into a cadre of donors and phone bankers. Will the Resistance meet a similar fate?
As part of research for this book, I conducted a follow-up survey with participants in what I am calling the Resistance in the Streets—people who have marched in the largest protests since Donald Trump’s Inauguration, including both Women’s Marches, the People’s Climate March, and the March for Our Lives. Overall, there is clear evidence that the Resistance redirected its attention from the streets to the districts to fight for Democrats to win in the 2018 midterm elections. Participants identified electoral politics generally and the midterm elections specifically as the main solution to what they considered to be the “top challenges” facing America. In fact, almost two-thirds of participants in my follow-up survey (63%) reported working with at least one “Resistance Group” six months before the midterm election (see Chapter 4 draft for more details).
The result of these efforts is a midterm election that saw unprecedented turnout and enthusiasm, particularly by educated white women who make up the bulk of the Resistance. But what happens to a movement that has been laser focused on one election after that election is over? Many leaders of Resistance groups have told me they plan to continue to channel their members’ outrage against the President and his administration, but will the ground troops continue to follow their lead?
At this point, it is too soon to tell. History certainly provides a cautionary tale.
At the same time, President Trump has been fanning the flames of Resistance since before taking office by eliciting the moral outrage of citizens through his statements and actions. My research finds that moral outrage motivated many Americans to participate in the Resistance without strong ties to the groups that were organizing the events: groups didn’t mobilize the activism, outrage did. Moreover, this outrage has sustained their activism throughout the past 22 months.
As President Trump continues to mobilize his base with inflammatory rhetoric and extremist politics, he may be exactly what the Resistance needs to survive. Just one day after the election, MoveOn worked with numerous other groups to organize over 800 #ProtectMueller events in response to the President firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Will people be outraged enough to continue marching in the streets and confronting their elected officials at town hall meetings? It is a bitter irony that the President’s base feeds on his outrageous conduct and so does the Resistance.
In final days before the Midterm elections, I am just finishing up analyzing interview data collected from conversations with leaders of Resistance Groups that are working to organize resistance in the districts around the election. I am currently revising the chapter based on these data (which is now Chapter 3 of the book on Organizing Resistance).
To get a first hand account, I’m also participating in the Last Weekend with my sister this weekend. The experience will provide some real world experience/observations from the work in the trenches of the districts right before the election.
I have also finalized the follow-up survey that I will field next week after the election. If you were surveyed out in the streets at one of the big protest events, expect to hear from me on Thursday. The survey is short but will provide extremely valuable information about how participants in the Resistance in the Streets participated in the Resistance in the Districts and the degree to which (and how) they connected with Resistance Groups to do their work.
After the survey closes at the end of this month, all of the data collection for my book about the American Resistance will be complete. My plan is to submit the fully revised chapters to Columbia University Press for publication before the spring semester begins.
With two weeks until the Midterm elections, we are barraged with polls telling us what likely voters might do on November 6th and what early voters have already done every day. As astounding images of early voting in states such as Florida, Nevada, and Texas, everyone is wondering what will happen.
Having just completed follow-up interviews with the leaders of many Resistance Groups that are working to organize people around the election, I have heard all about how these groups have been working to channel activism into electoral campaigns. One of the leaders told me about the relationship between the Resistance in the streets and the Resistance in the Districts: “You can’t just march and think that things are going to change, we march and we organize and we vote.”
One of the most interesting aspects of the focus on electoral campaigns and the Midterm elections is that these groups are working to varying degrees to embrace a distributed organizing model for electoral outcomes. As a Netroots Nation panel on the mess and magic of distributed organizing describes it, distributed organizing involves “participatory campaigning” that is more bottom-up and relies on technology to mobilize and connect people. Beyond that, each organization and organizer has a somewhat different definition.
As I wade through the interview transcripts to understand the full range of perspectives on and executions of distributed organizing, one of the big questions that remains is: in the face of the current local infrastructural deficit on the Left, can distributed organizing fill the gap and contribute to a Blue Wave? We should know the answer soon.
In the meantime, here’s a wordcloud of the distributed organizing node. It’s really interesting to see what made it and what did not..
While everyone focuses on different aspects of the upcoming midterms, I’m spending my time coding data from interviews I conducted last week with leaders of Resistance Groups. One of the clear themes in the interviews is the degree to which the Resistance in the Streets has shifted to the Districts leading up to the elections in 19 days.
So far, my favorite quote by a leader of one of these groups is:
“People are still concerned. People are still donating money, but they are tired of doing sort of like flailing-type organizing…like Trump did this thing, now we need to protest. They are more interested in doing the kind of block-by-block electoral work, and in some cases, community organizing work…that feels like it has meaningful outcomes and will actually change the – like a bunch of people woke up.”
These data and many more are being integrated into the revised version of Chapter 4 of American Resistance.