Although the Biden Administration has made some progress on a range of issues in the past year, the progress has been limited by the Senate and a conservative Supreme Court. The top issues that motivated the Resistance and turned people out in the streets to raise their voices in protest during the 4 years of the Trump Administration are floundering.
What comes next is the trillion dollar question. Policy failure can be demobilizing for many movements and there is evidence that Resisters are following that pattern. The political Right provides an interesting contrast: conservative civic groups have been very effective at maintaining momentum in recent years, even when Republicans win. If the Left doesn’t figure out how to sustain engagement and support its agenda from within the political system, it is destined to keep losing–and that’s bad news with the 2022 Midterm elections only 8 months away.
The outcome of the Kyle Rittenhouse case provides an important moment for reflection about the role of protest in American democracy and the risk protesters face when they participate in activism.
While protests on the Left have remained predominantly peaceful over the past five years, the dangers to protesters have spread silently. I wrote about the implications of the Rittenhouse case on protest in America and what are the lessons from the Rittenhouse verdict to the hundreds of thousands of Americans who jointed the Resistance for Slate (which, of course, came out the afternoon before Thanksgiving).
My piece focuses on some comments made by Representative Swalwell about how to interpret the verdict as a call to mobilize. The comments conflate different forms of protest: those that are confrontational by design and coordinated by people who have limited access to power (if any) versus those that are intentionally peaceful and aim to send a political message through media coverage to representatives, as well as building up solidarity that channels concern into other political work (which was the bread and butter of the American Resistance during the 4 years of the Trump Administration).
Although both types of protest take place in the streets, one works within the system and the other creates pressure from outside of it– pressure that threatens the system’s very existence.
With the current risks to protesters, what is the future of protest in America? History tells us there are two options.
The first option is to double down on the work of the Resistance and follow the original advice of Rep. Swalwell. If enough activists mobilize to work for electoral change, it would matter more than ever before. With more Democrats in office, they might finally deliver the democratic reforms that are so badly needed.
Given recent trends and the fact that the party in the White House rarely retains the majority in the House of Representatives, though, it is hard to imagine that the Democrats could win enough seats in the mid-term elections to secure the necessary political power (especially as Republicans have been quickly gerrymandering districts across the country).
The other more dangerous option is to get back in the streets and follow the example of the Civil Rights Movement and fight for our civil rights that are very much at risk. Those rights that were hard won by the sweat, tears, and blood of activists who risked violence and death to stand up for what they believed. With the Rittenhouse verdict empowering vigilantes and states efforts to repress civic participation, the risks to protesters are clear. But there is growing evidence that only insurgent tactics can fulfill the promise of America.
Not only should we expect more activism, protest, and resistance at international meetings, but this growing movement will certainly also target their activism within countries–including the US. As I note at the end of my recent piece: “I’ve studied the climate movement for more than twenty years — observing activists in the field at protests, conducting waves of interviews with leaders, and witnessing firsthand their commitment and energy. This movement is undergoing a major change that is likely to lead to social change because diverse coalitions of social movements are far more likely to succeed in achieving positive change. For the climate movement, there’s strength in numbers.”
On Saturday October 2nd, the Women’s March will march again. This time, the focus is specifically on defending Reproductive Rights. Although it is not clear how many people will join this mobilization in the streets during a pandemic before the Supreme Court reconvenes, the issue of Reproductive Rights is certainly on the mind of many resisters who have been out in the street starting at the first Women’s March in 2017.
In fact, in a 2019 paper, Lorien Jasny and I found that the issue of Reproductive Rights explained who was persisting in the Resistance, marching in the streets again-and-again during the Trump Administration. At last year’s Women’s March (in October before the 2020 elections), Reproductive Rights was one of the top reasons that participants were out in the street. Here’s the breakdown from my data in Washington, DC:
As national conversations focus more-and-more on the issue of Reproductive Rights and threats to Roe-v-Wade, it is likely that more and more of these Resisters will find their way back out into the streets.
Listening to the testimony is chilling but provides us with important reminders that there is much to learn about how January 6th happened. Every single testimony provides evidence that the insurrection was premeditated and coordinated. Important questions that need to be answered include: what groups were involved, how were they coordinated, how did they communicate with and mobilize participants, as well as how were the people involved connected to people in positions of power. I hope that those who investigate January 6th take advantage of the tools of the social sciences that we have used to study social movements.
While I listen to the testimony, I am reposting my piece from January 11th:
The distance between peaceful protest and violent confrontation that can turn into an insurgency is smaller than you might expect but it is not a spontaneous process–it involves significant planning and coordination. When we look back over the past 8 months, there were many signs that pro-Trump groups were radicalizing, in terms of the targets of their grievances and the tactics that they were considering. Look back at the ways they responded to COVID restrictions and organized counter protests to Black Lives Matter events in cities for clear signs.
As I noted less than three weeks ago, the current moment is the product of normalizing hate, legitimizing untruths, and emboldening misinformed Americans to challenge the legitimacy of the US government and take up arms in the streets. Yesterday, I published a new piece in Business Insider that asks: How do we stop an insurgency provoked by the President of the United States? How do you douse the flames of hatred, mistrust, and deliberate misinformation that creates a false reality?
The piece ends by noting how differently participants in the insurrection at the US Capitol last week were treated than protesters have been treated at events I have observed while studying protest for the past 20+ years. Although law enforcement is now rounding people up, there’s an enormous difference between escorting people out of the building to go back to their hotels and arresting everyone who breached the building. A clear message was telegraphed on January 6th that Pro-Trump supporters can incite violence, threaten elected officials, and occupy federal buildings with no recourse. We are now seeing some of the participants facing consequences, but I worry that this type of post-hoc response is not sending a strong enough message as groups prepare to return to DC this weekend and stay through the inauguration next week.
As part of the Indivisble Census, members of the Indivisible network were asked to indicate how they worked with the Democratic Party, Individual Candidate’s Campaigns, and other groups during the 2020 election. About half reported working with each.
Respondents wrote in about 2,000 groups that they had worked with around the 2020 elections. Five groups were each named by more than 200 respondents individually: Vote Forward, MoveOn, Swing Left, Fair Fight, and ACLU. It’s worth noting that there was quite a bit of overlap with the organizations mentioned in 2020; 12 of the top 15 groups were in the top-15 during both years. The three groups that were new were: Fair Fight, Flip the West, and Black Lives Matter. For those respondents who reported participating with other groups as well as Indivisible, more than half of them (56%) reported that Indivisible was their “primary connection to the progressive movement.” The following figure shows the groups that were mentioned by at least 60 individual respondents in 2021.
To look at how Indivisibles worked with other groups, here is an affiliation network map of connections to other groups that were mentioned by at least 100 Indivisibles. The blue nodes are the nine organizations that were mentioned the most. Nodes are sized based on the frequency of mention by respondents. The map shows that the network is extremely dense and is made of activists with numerous overlapping organizational affiliations.
To understand better the relationship between the different groups, the following visualization uses an algorithm that more clearly shows co-affiliation patterns among individuals.
Overall, this analysis provides clear evidence of the ways that Indivisibles worked across a range of progressive groups, which focused on a diversity of tactics, during the 2020 election.
The 2021 Indivisible Census, which closed earlier this month, provides more evidence about the ways that White Allies have joined the call to end systemic racism in America (note that the Indivisible network is made up predominantly of highly educated, middle aged White women). When asked what issues are motivating their political work, we see a clear shift in priorities for Indivisibles: many more are motivated by issues of Police Brutality and Racial Justice and fewer are motivated by Trump (who is no longer president).
Last night, the 2021 Indivisible Census opened. The Census is collecting data on the Indivisible Network to see how this Resistance group has grown over the past year. It will provide insights into the priorities of the network in terms of who is participating, what they are doing, and what is motivating them. Here’s a map of respondents from the 2020 Census (14,144 members of the network participated). Hopefully we’ll get a similar response this year or even more!
With yesterday’s inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President of the United States, the 2020 election is finally behind us. As executive orders are signed to replace some of the most unpopular of Trump’s policies, we need to ask ourselves (again): Will the Resistance join the Graveyard of democratic politics? History suggests that progressive political movements lose their potency after Democratic electoral wins. Just look at the post-9/11 anti-war movement and the Obama campaign in 2008 for evidence. Although some called the campaign to elect Barack Obama a movement to elect the first Black president, the campaign’s infrastructure (which became Organizing for America) was subsumed into the Democratic party quickly after the inauguration. The grassroots army of activists celebrated as the future of grassroots organizing was swiftly disarmed into a cadre of donors and phone bankers. Will the Resistance meet a similar fate?
Before the 2020 election November, I conducted another wave of follow-up surveys with participants in the American Resistance. Some preliminary findings from that survey was published on election day in the Washington Post. Overall, the data showed that many resisters continued to be politically active through fall 2020 and that they had channeled their activism into working for the election.
In part thanks to these efforts, the 2020 election had record turnout with two-thirds of registered voters participating. But what happens to a movement that has been laser focused on one election after that election is over? Leaders of Resistance groups have developed strategies to keep fighting and channel their members’ enthusiasm into specific political and legislative campaigns now that the Democrats hold the majorities in both houses of the Congress and the Presidency, but will the ground troops continue to follow their lead?
At this point, it is too soon to tell. History provides a cautionary tale, but the sting of the past few years and the very real threat of the Radical Right may just provide sufficient incentive to stay engaged.